Bullish on Japan? Nonsense

Why I am bullish on Japan

I want to thank Mr. Koll for writing as his view highlights a way of thinking that is no longer effective.

It is clear to me that Mr.Koll has the wrong perspective on Japan and on the world going forward. As a former economic analyst with a major investment house, he is seeing the world in ways that no longer apply. He is looking at the world through the rear view mirror.

The R&D argument is easy to refute. As is the case with the education system in the US where more money is spent per child than in any other country. You would expect the results to be stellar. Far from it. It is not how much you spend, it's how you spend it.

If patents are a measure of economic success, does it really help the wealth of the nation if these patents pertain to some functionality of a vending or pachinko slot machine? sheer numbers of patents indicate nothing nor do patents on a vast array of technologies that may never be adopted. The number of patents in relation to economic output over the past 10+ years tells me that their systems are misaligned. They are out of focus. If,however, they are continually dominating patent awards and clipping along at 3-5% growth in GDP, then I'd say, yeah, they are really onto something and all countries would be rushing to Japan to study their success. They are not.

"The future will be designed and invented in Japan" Should read: "The future will be designed and invented in by a few companies in Japan for a little while longer until the Indians and Chinese have fully ramped up."

Creativity has been bred out of Japanese. That is no great revelation. The ability to get things done is clearly here, but those steering the ships are largely inept and inbred - in politics and in business - large and small. Ability, profit motives, efficiency and effectiveness are clearly absent from Japanese business. If the Japanese economy comes back it will take another 20 years. That's the amount to time it will likely take for all the deadwood to retire from the system.

Japan has been coasting for years on an explosion of wealth, savings blanketed in protectionism. Now that wealth is dwindling, the savings are going fast, and the population is ageing.

Japanese are not any more "hard working" than anyone else. They work long hours. Are they any more productive? Look at all the overtime, no holidays, no layoffs and economic growth that's been sliding for years. This is a very ineffective economy. Look at the other G7 countries where overtime is much less, people have holidays and there has been economic growth.

Japan today is the rich, spoiled child, now fully grown with no career, smokes, drinks, gambles and is living off a trust fund that's soon to run out.

All the "wa" in the land will not help Japan, the nation, regain it's former position.

At best, Japan will find its position in the world as the ageing engineer uncle who used to be wealthy, still knows a few things, but who no one takes seriously as the world has moved on while he still talks about the old days.

There is no vision in japan, no inherent spirit or drive like post-war Japan.

India and China will soon regain their positions as world leaders that they held a few hundred years ago.

Sadly, Mr.Koll is analysing the wrong things. The world has changed. Governments are and will continue to fall, banking systems are and will continue to collapse. Riots - have started and will continue. what we see now with bailouts is a necessary but short term window dressing. The media uses the word: recovery. This, too, is a misnomer. It's a whole new world emerging and we have to see it in a different way. The way that it is and not the way we think it is (or was) or the way we think it ought to be.