It is only just starting. A ripple effect will be felt for the next couple of years. I am not negative, just realistic. it is not like the economy was moving at a healthy clip, plenty of orgs were teetering prior to the quake. Many countries are at the ready to absorb production, and Japanese companies will have to abide. If this quake had occurred 20 years ago, Japan would have had a better chance. Now in a globalized world where production, jobs and capital can move, China and others are in a very good position to eat Japan's lunch. Those (high paying) jobs are not coming back. In the middle, we have scored of unproductive white collar workers - who'd have been made redundant years ago in other G7 countries - who will be cut and join the ranks of other mid-career types who will struggle with no skills and no opportunity. Some have been cut. More are surely to follow. College grads have struggled for the past few years. The "factory" approach: high school -> uni -> job for life had been crumbling for the past several years. This, too will only unravel more resulting in masses of college grads with no job. What happens in other countries with high youth unemployment? At the lower end, I was shocked to learn about so many import workers - not "entertainment" visas but "guest" workers from China who worked on farms and who abandoned the country after the quake. Imported health care workers from Indonesia and Philippines have backed out, too. (always amazes me - a country with a labour shortage and at the same time a country that uses only half of its labour force). They may be back. But for now, all this puts a strain on farming and health care. Is the country bright enough to reallocate the unemployed students and salary men to farm work and health care? No.
People's lives have been turned upside down. This will never show up in government statistics.
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