Why I am bullish on Japan
I want to thank Mr. Koll for writing as his view highlights a way of thinking that is no longer effective.
It is clear to me that Mr.Koll has the wrong perspective on Japan and on the world going forward. As a former economic analyst with a major investment house, he is seeing the world in ways that no longer apply. He is looking at the world through the rear view mirror.
The R&D argument is easy to refute. As is the case with the education system in the US where more money is spent per child than in any other country. You would expect the results to be stellar. Far from it. It is not how much you spend, it's how you spend it.
If patents are a measure of economic success, does it really help the wealth of the nation if these patents pertain to some functionality of a vending or pachinko slot machine? sheer numbers of patents indicate nothing nor do patents on a vast array of technologies that may never be adopted. The number of patents in relation to economic output over the past 10+ years tells me that their systems are misaligned. They are out of focus. If,however, they are continually dominating patent awards and clipping along at 3-5% growth in GDP, then I'd say, yeah, they are really onto something and all countries would be rushing to Japan to study their success. They are not.
"The future will be designed and invented in Japan" Should read: "The future will be designed and invented in by a few companies in Japan for a little while longer until the Indians and Chinese have fully ramped up."
Creativity has been bred out of Japanese. That is no great revelation. The ability to get things done is clearly here, but those steering the ships are largely inept and inbred - in politics and in business - large and small. Ability, profit motives, efficiency and effectiveness are clearly absent from Japanese business. If the Japanese economy comes back it will take another 20 years. That's the amount to time it will likely take for all the deadwood to retire from the system.
Japan has been coasting for years on an explosion of wealth, savings blanketed in protectionism. Now that wealth is dwindling, the savings are going fast, and the population is ageing.
Japanese are not any more "hard working" than anyone else. They work long hours. Are they any more productive? Look at all the overtime, no holidays, no layoffs and economic growth that's been sliding for years. This is a very ineffective economy. Look at the other G7 countries where overtime is much less, people have holidays and there has been economic growth.
Japan today is the rich, spoiled child, now fully grown with no career, smokes, drinks, gambles and is living off a trust fund that's soon to run out.
All the "wa" in the land will not help Japan, the nation, regain it's former position.
At best, Japan will find its position in the world as the ageing engineer uncle who used to be wealthy, still knows a few things, but who no one takes seriously as the world has moved on while he still talks about the old days.
There is no vision in japan, no inherent spirit or drive like post-war Japan.
India and China will soon regain their positions as world leaders that they held a few hundred years ago.
Sadly, Mr.Koll is analysing the wrong things. The world has changed. Governments are and will continue to fall, banking systems are and will continue to collapse. Riots - have started and will continue. what we see now with bailouts is a necessary but short term window dressing. The media uses the word: recovery. This, too, is a misnomer. It's a whole new world emerging and we have to see it in a different way. The way that it is and not the way we think it is (or was) or the way we think it ought to be.
Friday, 27 March 2009
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
The Incredible Shrinking Polar Bear
Read the article here:
The Incredible Shrinking Polar Bear
I have long known about the fate of the noble Polar Bear. I learned years ago that the polar ice cap is shrinking, that the annual ice floes do not last as long as they used to and as a result, polar bears can not feed long enough. They are getting thinner and female bears cannot sustain enough fat to bear (excuse the pun) as many cubs as they used to - three became, two and two has become one.
I have been know, for years, to refer to SUVs as "polar bear killers".
Vocabulary and Phrases
turning to cannibalism
to draw up an action plan
to subsist
to congregate
to recede
a vital fattening-up time
to see them through
a long summer fast
chair (a person and a verb)
delegates
desperation
deliberately
denning (den - noun, to den - verb, denning)
over-optimistic
The Incredible Shrinking Polar Bear
I have long known about the fate of the noble Polar Bear. I learned years ago that the polar ice cap is shrinking, that the annual ice floes do not last as long as they used to and as a result, polar bears can not feed long enough. They are getting thinner and female bears cannot sustain enough fat to bear (excuse the pun) as many cubs as they used to - three became, two and two has become one.
I have been know, for years, to refer to SUVs as "polar bear killers".
Vocabulary and Phrases
turning to cannibalism
to draw up an action plan
to subsist
to congregate
to recede
a vital fattening-up time
to see them through
a long summer fast
chair (a person and a verb)
delegates
desperation
deliberately
denning (den - noun, to den - verb, denning)
over-optimistic
A Lender
Today I became a lender.
Today I lent money to person I've never met.
Her name is Tagi.
She is 49 years old, has six children and lives in Samoa.
Read about Tagi and why I am lending her money.
Today I lent money to person I've never met.
Her name is Tagi.
She is 49 years old, has six children and lives in Samoa.
Read about Tagi and why I am lending her money.
Tuesday, 10 March 2009
What to read - March 2009
From the BBC
Dalai Lama renews autonomy call
The Dalai Lama has repeated his demand for "legitimate and meaningful autonomy" for Tibet.
Your ability to discuss this issue is very good practice.
Some good language here:
"legitimate and meaningful autonomy"
a climate of fear
a bloody uprising
feudal society
serf
emancipation
"mutual benefit"
legitimate and meaningful autonomy
enable
within the framework
exile
prevail
On a lighter note...
Short article. Key terms are emboldened.
Love letters from Prince Charles to Canadian woman listed on EBay
Friday, March 6, 2009 Canadian Press
You, too, can own love letters apparently written by Prince Charles to a Canadian woman - if you have a minimum of $30,000 to spare.
The six letters are up for grabs on the online auction site EBay with a starting bid of $30,000. So far, there are no bids. The letters are written to a Montreal woman named Janet and most were written in 1976. But the latest letter is dated June 8, 1980 and in it, Prince Charles discusses how he was under tremendous pressure to get married, but assured Janet he would give her fair warning before that happened.
He married Lady Diana Spencer in July 1981.
Looking for a new career? How about as a Bee Inspector? :-)
From The Guardian
Bee parasite devastates colonies as hives go unregistered and uninspected
Millions of insects could be wiped out because thinly staffed inspectorate does not know where half the country's beekeepers are.
Dalai Lama renews autonomy call
The Dalai Lama has repeated his demand for "legitimate and meaningful autonomy" for Tibet.
Your ability to discuss this issue is very good practice.
Some good language here:
"legitimate and meaningful autonomy"
a climate of fear
a bloody uprising
feudal society
serf
emancipation
"mutual benefit"
legitimate and meaningful autonomy
enable
within the framework
exile
prevail
On a lighter note...
Short article. Key terms are emboldened.
Love letters from Prince Charles to Canadian woman listed on EBay
Friday, March 6, 2009 Canadian Press
You, too, can own love letters apparently written by Prince Charles to a Canadian woman - if you have a minimum of $30,000 to spare.
The six letters are up for grabs on the online auction site EBay with a starting bid of $30,000. So far, there are no bids. The letters are written to a Montreal woman named Janet and most were written in 1976. But the latest letter is dated June 8, 1980 and in it, Prince Charles discusses how he was under tremendous pressure to get married, but assured Janet he would give her fair warning before that happened.
He married Lady Diana Spencer in July 1981.
Looking for a new career? How about as a Bee Inspector? :-)
From The Guardian
Bee parasite devastates colonies as hives go unregistered and uninspected
Millions of insects could be wiped out because thinly staffed inspectorate does not know where half the country's beekeepers are.
Friday, 20 February 2009
Cows - Their Impact on the Environment
What is the impact of a cow on the global climate? In fact, collectively, they can have an impact. The food we produce - how we grow it, and not so much how it get to us, has a significant impact on CO2 emissions. This according to a recent article in New Scientist.
Deliver us from Cheeseburgers
New Scientist
Check out Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and see that food production accounts for 15% of greenhouse gases. 5% of global CO2 emission comes from livestock. This stat from the World Resources Institute. How do they know?
Food for thought
Household Greenhouse gas emission account for double that of driving! Check out this chart.
Read the story: What is your dinner doing to the planet?
Deliver us from Cheeseburgers
New Scientist
Check out Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and see that food production accounts for 15% of greenhouse gases. 5% of global CO2 emission comes from livestock. This stat from the World Resources Institute. How do they know?
Food for thought
Household Greenhouse gas emission account for double that of driving! Check out this chart.
Read the story: What is your dinner doing to the planet?
Namaste
Namasté is a common spoken greeting or salutation in the Indian subcontinent.
It is commonly used in India and Nepal by Hindus, Jains and Buddhists, and many continue to use this outside the Indian subcontinent.
In Indian and Nepali culture, the word is spoken at the beginning of written or verbal communication. However, the same hands folded gesture is made wordlessly upon departure.
In yoga, namasté is said to mean "The light in me honors the light in you," as spoken by both the yoga instructor and yoga students.
Taken literally, it means "I bow to you". The word is derived from Sanskrit (namas): to bow, obeisance, reverential salutation, and (te): "to you".
Namasté is one of the few Sanskrit words commonly recognized by Non-Hindi speakers. Namasté is particularly associated with aspects of South Asian culture such as vegetarianism, yoga, ayurvedic healing, and Hinduism.
In recent times, and more globally, the term "namasté" has come to be especially associated with yoga and spiritual meditation all over the world. In this context, it has been viewed in terms of a multitude of very complicated and poetic meanings which tie in with the spiritual origins of the word.
Some examples:
• "I honour the Spirit in you which is also in me." -- attributed to author Deepak Chopra
• "I honour the place in you in which the entire Universe dwells, I honour the place in you which is of Love, of Integrity, of Wisdom and of Peace. When you are in that place in you, and I am in that place in me, we are One."
• "I salute the God within you."
• "Your spirit and my spirit are ONE." -- attributed to Lilias Folan's shared teachings from her journeys to India.
• "That which is of the Divine in me greets that which is of the Divine in you."
• "The Divinity within me perceives and adores the Divinity within you."
• "All that is best and highest in me greets/salutes all that is best and highest in you."
It is commonly used in India and Nepal by Hindus, Jains and Buddhists, and many continue to use this outside the Indian subcontinent.
In Indian and Nepali culture, the word is spoken at the beginning of written or verbal communication. However, the same hands folded gesture is made wordlessly upon departure.
In yoga, namasté is said to mean "The light in me honors the light in you," as spoken by both the yoga instructor and yoga students.
Taken literally, it means "I bow to you". The word is derived from Sanskrit (namas): to bow, obeisance, reverential salutation, and (te): "to you".
Namasté is one of the few Sanskrit words commonly recognized by Non-Hindi speakers. Namasté is particularly associated with aspects of South Asian culture such as vegetarianism, yoga, ayurvedic healing, and Hinduism.
In recent times, and more globally, the term "namasté" has come to be especially associated with yoga and spiritual meditation all over the world. In this context, it has been viewed in terms of a multitude of very complicated and poetic meanings which tie in with the spiritual origins of the word.
Some examples:
• "I honour the Spirit in you which is also in me." -- attributed to author Deepak Chopra
• "I honour the place in you in which the entire Universe dwells, I honour the place in you which is of Love, of Integrity, of Wisdom and of Peace. When you are in that place in you, and I am in that place in me, we are One."
• "I salute the God within you."
• "Your spirit and my spirit are ONE." -- attributed to Lilias Folan's shared teachings from her journeys to India.
• "That which is of the Divine in me greets that which is of the Divine in you."
• "The Divinity within me perceives and adores the Divinity within you."
• "All that is best and highest in me greets/salutes all that is best and highest in you."
Thursday, 19 February 2009
The Google GDrive?
It is very mysterious, the Google GDrive.
The posting on Wikipedia and the audit / edit trail are quite mysterious.
Check it out.
GDrive [on Wikipedia]
The posting on Wikipedia and the audit / edit trail are quite mysterious.
Check it out.
GDrive [on Wikipedia]
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Whirlwind
The recession in America is now being branded as a whirlwind? Is that what they're calling it now? Did Madison Avenue do another spin job?
A recession (or whirlwind) in Tokyo? Here is a definition: There is a recession in Tokyo when the line up to pay for your designer clothes is shorter than usual.
In Japan, well, Tokyo, people make money people spend money. It flows. the yen has jumped quite a bit as a result of the banking meltdown in the US, so foreign products are cheaper and i get a great rate when i send $ home. People are flying to Seoul to shop 'cause their currency has dropping making the difference even more extreme.
That being said, people -are- being affected here. Though nothing like in North America.
Areas outside of Tokyo and Osaka have been hard hit for a long time.
I'd say that I am affected by some corporate training contracts that are "pending", so it is not losing work, rather, not getting proposed work.
Here in Japan and especially in the US there was what I call a false economy for years: People spending money they don't have on things they don't need. Too much credit. People kept buying. Companies scaled up production and operations based on this. Now that it's crumbling, 'false profits' are going and 'false jobs' are now gone.
Everything goes in cycles. Economies go in cycles. When times are good people think they'll never end. When times are bad, likewise.
It is possible, not only to survive but thrive, during a recession. Where there is crisis, there is opportunity. You have to think differently. With the wipe out of the banking system, when it gets restored, it will not be the same as before. When the economy recovers it will not be the same as before. Things will be quite different in the future. Expect change. Don’t expect that a 'recovery' will look like things did before.
I predict that as I write now in January 2009, things will get worse before they get better. We have not seen the worst of it yet.
I’ll be ok. I am used to it. Here's why:
For the past 10 years, all my work has been on contract. I generally work 2-4 different places. Sometimes I am really, really busy. Sometimes I am not. When I am not working, I have no income. It happens. I've learned to expect it and manage it. Eventually it comes back.
Compare me to a Japanese "salary man" who has worked 10 years at the same company. If / when he loses his job tomorrow with wife, family and no savings (they've spent it all on Disneyland, Louis Vuitton bags and a host of other useless things). And, never having been in that situation, it's major stress. he's likely to jump in front of a commuter train (which happens far, far too often here).
Me? I'm fine. just inconvenienced by the train delay. Most Japanese, like Americans -- with way too much unwarranted credit -- have lived in a happy-happy world too long. Time to wake up, read a newspaper and learn what's really going on in the world.
A recession (or whirlwind) in Tokyo? Here is a definition: There is a recession in Tokyo when the line up to pay for your designer clothes is shorter than usual.
In Japan, well, Tokyo, people make money people spend money. It flows. the yen has jumped quite a bit as a result of the banking meltdown in the US, so foreign products are cheaper and i get a great rate when i send $ home. People are flying to Seoul to shop 'cause their currency has dropping making the difference even more extreme.
That being said, people -are- being affected here. Though nothing like in North America.
Areas outside of Tokyo and Osaka have been hard hit for a long time.
I'd say that I am affected by some corporate training contracts that are "pending", so it is not losing work, rather, not getting proposed work.
Here in Japan and especially in the US there was what I call a false economy for years: People spending money they don't have on things they don't need. Too much credit. People kept buying. Companies scaled up production and operations based on this. Now that it's crumbling, 'false profits' are going and 'false jobs' are now gone.
Everything goes in cycles. Economies go in cycles. When times are good people think they'll never end. When times are bad, likewise.
It is possible, not only to survive but thrive, during a recession. Where there is crisis, there is opportunity. You have to think differently. With the wipe out of the banking system, when it gets restored, it will not be the same as before. When the economy recovers it will not be the same as before. Things will be quite different in the future. Expect change. Don’t expect that a 'recovery' will look like things did before.
I predict that as I write now in January 2009, things will get worse before they get better. We have not seen the worst of it yet.
I’ll be ok. I am used to it. Here's why:
For the past 10 years, all my work has been on contract. I generally work 2-4 different places. Sometimes I am really, really busy. Sometimes I am not. When I am not working, I have no income. It happens. I've learned to expect it and manage it. Eventually it comes back.
Compare me to a Japanese "salary man" who has worked 10 years at the same company. If / when he loses his job tomorrow with wife, family and no savings (they've spent it all on Disneyland, Louis Vuitton bags and a host of other useless things). And, never having been in that situation, it's major stress. he's likely to jump in front of a commuter train (which happens far, far too often here).
Me? I'm fine. just inconvenienced by the train delay. Most Japanese, like Americans -- with way too much unwarranted credit -- have lived in a happy-happy world too long. Time to wake up, read a newspaper and learn what's really going on in the world.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
Christmas in Japan
It's a funny place, Japan.
Japan is not Christian. It is "officially" Shinto, but largely Buddhist. No one understands any of it until someone dies, though. In Japan, Christmas is for couples.
Dinner for a "North American" Christmas is roast turkey. Turkey is not a Japanese food. Japanese have a severe affinity to borrow culture from Americans. However, the closest thing to turkey is chicken. KFC has Christmas promotions. I tell Japanese that in England people eat goose as a traditional food at Christmas. They look quite disgusted. They seems happy with their deep fried chicken.
I discovered the "Christmas cake" in Japan is, in fact, sponge cake, not heavy fruit cake. Japanese are surprised by this, of course. As Christmas is for couples, it stands to reason that it is a "romantic" holiday. Gifts are a must. What's the big gift to celebrate the birth of Jesus? Jewelry. And what beverage could go better with your jewelry, sponge cake and KFC than champagne? It's the beverage of choice for the most holy of Christian days. So, to review, KFC and champagne - that's Christmas in Japan. Weird, weird country.
The love hotels get long line ups during Christmas, apparently. I'll have to wander through Dogenzaka, Shibuya to check it out.
Christians in the west are not off the hook. Christians continue blindly to use Christmas trees, holly wreaths and mistletoe - all pre-Christian, pagan symbols; and continue to celebrate Samhain (Halloween), the pagan new year. I think Christians are confused as well.
Japan is not Christian. It is "officially" Shinto, but largely Buddhist. No one understands any of it until someone dies, though. In Japan, Christmas is for couples.
Dinner for a "North American" Christmas is roast turkey. Turkey is not a Japanese food. Japanese have a severe affinity to borrow culture from Americans. However, the closest thing to turkey is chicken. KFC has Christmas promotions. I tell Japanese that in England people eat goose as a traditional food at Christmas. They look quite disgusted. They seems happy with their deep fried chicken.
I discovered the "Christmas cake" in Japan is, in fact, sponge cake, not heavy fruit cake. Japanese are surprised by this, of course. As Christmas is for couples, it stands to reason that it is a "romantic" holiday. Gifts are a must. What's the big gift to celebrate the birth of Jesus? Jewelry. And what beverage could go better with your jewelry, sponge cake and KFC than champagne? It's the beverage of choice for the most holy of Christian days. So, to review, KFC and champagne - that's Christmas in Japan. Weird, weird country.
The love hotels get long line ups during Christmas, apparently. I'll have to wander through Dogenzaka, Shibuya to check it out.
Christians in the west are not off the hook. Christians continue blindly to use Christmas trees, holly wreaths and mistletoe - all pre-Christian, pagan symbols; and continue to celebrate Samhain (Halloween), the pagan new year. I think Christians are confused as well.
Monday, 5 January 2009
The best investment in yourself
What is the best investment you can make in yourself?
Many people would answer: Education.
As an economist, I know there is a direct positive correlation between education (formal education) and income. The higher your education, the higher your income. What is formal education? It's "school". Lessons, lecture, assignments, examinations: a formal and recognized course of study. However, any education - formal or informal - is a valuable investment in yourself. You do not need to go to school. Read. Talk. As questions. Get curious. It may improve your income. It will enrich your life.
Some would say: Your health.
Shouldn't you always put the best things in your body that you can? It is you only body, after all. There is an endless selection of bad food easily available to us. Somewhere in and amongst all the processed foods, chemicals, and additives we lost our connection with the land. We lost our connection with real food. To invest in yourself, reconnect with your food. Take time. Plan your meals. Learn what goes into your food. Know what's good for you. Less animal fat, more leafy-greens, moderate exercise. Enjoy time with family and friends. Reduce your stress. Manage your stress. Be away of the effect that stress has on your body. This is something you can control. Drink less alcohol. Stop smoking. Stop smoking. Smoking will kill you. It's your body and it's an investment worth making.
Others might say that travel is the best investment you can make in yourself. Many of us in the developed world are in a position to travel to distant and far off lands. The experiences gained from exploring new places, discovering new things and meeting new people can be enriching and life-changing. Travel teaches you about the world, it teaches you about your own country and culture and it teaches you about yourself. There's a big world out there to discover. Yours to explore.
Many people would answer: Education.
As an economist, I know there is a direct positive correlation between education (formal education) and income. The higher your education, the higher your income. What is formal education? It's "school". Lessons, lecture, assignments, examinations: a formal and recognized course of study. However, any education - formal or informal - is a valuable investment in yourself. You do not need to go to school. Read. Talk. As questions. Get curious. It may improve your income. It will enrich your life.
Some would say: Your health.
Shouldn't you always put the best things in your body that you can? It is you only body, after all. There is an endless selection of bad food easily available to us. Somewhere in and amongst all the processed foods, chemicals, and additives we lost our connection with the land. We lost our connection with real food. To invest in yourself, reconnect with your food. Take time. Plan your meals. Learn what goes into your food. Know what's good for you. Less animal fat, more leafy-greens, moderate exercise. Enjoy time with family and friends. Reduce your stress. Manage your stress. Be away of the effect that stress has on your body. This is something you can control. Drink less alcohol. Stop smoking. Stop smoking. Smoking will kill you. It's your body and it's an investment worth making.
Others might say that travel is the best investment you can make in yourself. Many of us in the developed world are in a position to travel to distant and far off lands. The experiences gained from exploring new places, discovering new things and meeting new people can be enriching and life-changing. Travel teaches you about the world, it teaches you about your own country and culture and it teaches you about yourself. There's a big world out there to discover. Yours to explore.
Thursday, 1 January 2009
I resolve…
In North America the beginning of the New Year signals a new and fresh beginning. It is a time that people decisions to start anew – to make a change. These decisions are called New Years Resolutions. The most common resolutions one hears are:
- To quit smoking
- To go to the gym
- To lose weight
- To spend more time with family and friends
- To get out of debt
This time of year, early January, memberships to gyms and health clubs jump and how-to-stop smoking commercials appear on television. I am reminded of “Reveen” a stop-smoking hypnotist who always seem to come to town in January.
While making resolutions to improve oneself is noble, the vast majority of people are not successful. The likely reason is that New Years resolutions are imposed at one time of the year: January 1st. Rather, the preferable time to set goals is when you are ready and not when the calendar tells you it’s time.
What happens in Japan? Do Japanese make New Years Resolutions at the beginning of the year? Is there some custom?
- To quit smoking
- To go to the gym
- To lose weight
- To spend more time with family and friends
- To get out of debt
This time of year, early January, memberships to gyms and health clubs jump and how-to-stop smoking commercials appear on television. I am reminded of “Reveen” a stop-smoking hypnotist who always seem to come to town in January.
While making resolutions to improve oneself is noble, the vast majority of people are not successful. The likely reason is that New Years resolutions are imposed at one time of the year: January 1st. Rather, the preferable time to set goals is when you are ready and not when the calendar tells you it’s time.
What happens in Japan? Do Japanese make New Years Resolutions at the beginning of the year? Is there some custom?
Wednesday, 31 December 2008
Drinking in English
Visit English, Irish, Scottish, American pubs and restaurants in Tokyo
The cost of food and drink are not included.
Y1500 to participate each week for up to a 3 hour session. (8-11pm)
Discuss, sample and enjoy beer and other beverages from around the world.
It is easier to speak English in a social setting. And having a drink can't hurt the conversation,either. The focus is English conversation and an opportunity to practice speaking and listening. Topics can include aspects of beer, wine and whiskey (tasting, making, regions etc.), Pub culture, English-speaking culture, and travel.
Venues will vary:
- Aldgate - A great English pub in Shibuya
- Braeburn - A special Scottish bar in Shinjuku
- The Nelson - A one-coin bar in Ginza
- T.Y. Harbor Brewery - A micro-brew pub in Shinagawa.
Would you like to join? Please email me, post a comment or watch for more details here.
Do you know a great English / Irish / Scottish pub in Tokyo?
Post it here.
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